Global Climate Change & Agriculture: Navigating the Future with AiQ

Climate change is reshaping agriculture with rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and extreme weather. Farmers face challenges like water scarcity, unpredictable rainfall, and pest outbreaks, making accurate forecasting essential. Corn yields in the U.S. illustrate these impacts, with recent years showing wide variations due to weather shifts.

Enter AiQ, an AI-powered tool designed for agriculture. By combining weather, crop, and satellite data, AiQ offers tailored insights and real-time updates to help farmers adapt and thrive. With tools like ANDY, a purpose-built LLM for agriculture, AiQ delivers reliable, ad-free forecasts and actionable data, empowering users to make informed decisions in a changing climate.

🌍 Argentina & Brazil Weather Update (Jan 5, 2025): Expanding dryness in Argentina's key production zones (Pampas/Nucleo Zone: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Western Entre Rios, Northern Buenos Aires) is raising concerns, with AiQ cutting soybean estimates from 55.8M to 52M tons and corn to 50M tons.

Meanwhile, drought risks in southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul to Paraná) are mirroring Argentina’s challenges, threatening 15-25% of high-yield corn and soybean production. RGDS model estimates have dropped significantly, with some projections falling from 21M tons to as low as 15M. Eastern Paraguay is also struggling with limited rain since early December.

📊 Stay tuned for weekly updates from AiQ and daily model insights with ANDY, AiQ’s LLM, for the latest risk assessments! 🌽☀️

Quiet weather markets tend to be bearish, as sustaining a bull market without ongoing weather issues is challenging. In the absence of significant weather developments, analysts often resort to sensationalism, with wheat markets being a prime target. As AiQ aptly notes, social media does not start bull markets—weather does. Patient buyers have been rewarded; the rest have gotten “wheated.”

How big can Brazil’s soybean crop get? Since early November, AiQ’s consistent message has highlighted the absence of significant weather threats, with South America’s 2024/25 campaign off to a record start. Brazil’s production is projected to increase by 6 million tonnes to178.25 M, with yield potential exceeding market expectations. While recent forecasts show a drying trend, there are no alarming temperature concerns. A quiet start to 2025 will signal big harvests ahead for Brazil’s growers.

The South American weather market kicks off in mid-December, and with it, AIQ’s first in-season update. Current trends suggest a more bearish outlook for soybeans compared to corn. If favorable weather conditions persist, global stockpiles could increase by 15 million tonnes or more. AiQ's Machine Learning models will provide increasingly precise production forecasts as the season progresses. For now, Argentina remains the key region to watch, given the latest weather forecasts and trend toward a drier GFS.

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Falling prices, policy uncertainty, and abundant U.S. crops have led many buyers to adopt a hand-to-mouth strategy, purchasing only what’s immediately needed and minimizing inventory. This approach, which began after the Ukraine invasion, has been advantageous as prices for key commodities like wheat, corn, and vegetable oils have dropped by half, driving global inflation down. Despite these declines, buyers continue to expect even lower prices, staying bearish or complacent. However, AiQ warns that risks are quickly shifting, as seen in recent changes in the sugar market, suggesting more volatility ahead.

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AiQ presents its final corn and updated soybean yields prior to the September USDA update. AiQ's modeling predicts corn at 183.3 and soybeans at 52.6. Here are some of the questions AiQ addresses.

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Traders and analysts will be watching closely before all attention turns to South American weather.

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